What happened
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point (25 bp), to a target range of 3.75-4.00%.
A week later, one Fed official said it may not be done. Speaking in Chicago on September 23, Fed Governor Michael Barr said that in his base case, "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed" to bring inflation down to target.
As of Thursday, September 24 at 5:19 PM CT, traders on Polymarket put about 66.5% odds on another quarter-point hike at the Fed's October 27-28 meeting, and about 32.5% on no change. Those are betting-market odds, not a forecast, and they can shift quickly.
The 10-year jumped in two days
Mortgage rates tend to move with the 10-year Treasury yield, so it's the number worth watching. On Treasury's daily par yield curve, the 10-year was 4.94% on Thursday, September 17, and 4.96% on Tuesday, September 22. It rose to 5.11% on Wednesday, September 23, and 5.18% on Thursday, September 24. Most of the week's move came in those last two days, and the 10-year finished up 0.24 percentage point on the week.
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average came in at 7.03% this week, up from 6.95% last week and the highest weekly average since the week of January 16, 2025. That's a weekly national survey average, not a quote for your loan. Your rate depends on your file.
What it means for you
The 10-year and the weekly mortgage average both rose this week, and at least one Fed governor expects more tightening, not less. That doesn't tell you where rates go next. Nobody knows that.
What you can control is how much of that uncertainty you carry.
Lock or float?
A rate lock holds your rate for the lock period, subject to the lock's terms. You give up the chance at a better rate if the market improves. In exchange, you take the risk of a worse one off the table.
Floating keeps that chance open, but it's a bet. You're betting the 10-year comes back down before you need to lock. Right now a Fed governor is talking about more tightening, and betting-market odds lean toward another hike. That doesn't settle it, but it's the backdrop you'd be betting against.
A simple test: if a higher payment than the one you're looking at today would break your budget or your deal, floating is a risk you probably can't afford. If you have room and time, you have more options.
Who should act, and who can wait
Under contract with a closing date. Your clock runs no matter what the market does. Get clear on your lock options now instead of hoping next week breaks your way.
Refinancing, and the math works today. If a refinance makes sense at today's pricing, that's worth taking seriously. Waiting for a better rate means risking the one that already works.
Refinancing, and the math doesn't work yet. You can wait. Watch the data and revisit.
Shopping without a contract. You have time. Use this stretch to understand your budget at today's rates, so a move in rates doesn't catch you off guard when you find the right house.
What to watch next week
These scheduled releases could move the 10-year:
- Tue, September 29: JOLTS job openings report
- Wed, September 30: PCE inflation data
- Thu, Oct 1: ISM manufacturing survey
- Fri, Oct 2: September jobs report
The week after, the Fed releases minutes from its September meeting on October 7.
Strong inflation or jobs numbers can push yields higher. Softer ones can pull them lower. It doesn't always go that way, and one report rarely settles anything.
Talk it through with Jeff
This is the kind of week where a second set of eyes helps. Jeff Shin, NMLS #1041652, originates from Chicago with Barrett Financial Group, L.L.C. He can walk through your timeline, how a rate move could change the math you're working with, and how to weigh locking against floating. No documents required to begin.
He can't promise a rate or tell you where the market goes next. What he can do is help you make the call.
Start with this week's numbers on the Rate Watch. Then, if you want to talk, Get In Touch.
This post is not a commitment to lend.
Jeff Shin, NMLS 1041652. Barrett Financial Group, L.L.C. Chicago. Equal Housing Lender. Not a commitment to lend.