The Fed's rate-setting committee met October 27 and 28 and decided not to change the federal funds target range. Freddie Mac publishes its weekly mortgage survey on Thursdays at noon Eastern, which is later today. So the mortgage averages in this post come from the last survey it released, dated October 22, 2026.
What the Fed said
The vote was 10 to 2. The two members who voted no, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, wanted to raise the range at this meeting. Nobody on the record voted for a cut.
The statement says economic activity "is expanding at a strong pace." It says domestic spending "has been resilient," that job gains "have kept pace with the workforce," and that the unemployment rate "has changed little." It also says uncertainty "remains elevated," in part because of geopolitical developments.
On prices, the statement is short: "Inflation remains elevated." It says more information will help the committee decide what policy stance is right for getting inflation back to its goal. It doesn't say what that stance will be, and it doesn't say when the committee will decide.
So the plain read is this. The Fed stood still, two members wanted to go higher, and the committee told us it is waiting for more data.
The fed funds rate is not your mortgage rate
The Fed's target range is a short-term policy rate. It is not a mortgage rate, and the Fed doesn't set the rate on your loan. A hold doesn't freeze mortgage rates, and a cut or a hike wouldn't set them either.
That's worth saying every time the Fed meets, because the headline "Fed holds rates" sounds like it covers everything. It doesn't. Your rate comes from a lender pricing your loan on a given day.
Where the mortgage averages are
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) showed the 30-year fixed average edging lower in the week ending October 22, 2026. Freddie Mac's own summary said the 30-year average "declined" as of the 10/22 Freddie Mac survey. It is still higher than it was at the same point a year ago.
The 15-year fixed average also edged lower that week, by a smaller amount than the 30-year. Like the 30-year, it is higher than a year earlier.
So the short version: both averages ticked down for the week, and both are above where they stood a year ago. A small weekly dip doesn't erase a year of movement in the other direction.
What the survey actually measures
Freddie Mac builds the PMMS from loan applications that lenders submit through its Loan Product Advisor system. Each weekly number averages applications from 12:00 a.m. Eastern the prior Thursday through 11:59 p.m. Eastern Wednesday. The lenders in it are a mix of credit unions, commercial banks, and mortgage lending companies.
The survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans. Freddie Mac describes the borrower profile as good to excellent credit, a home purchase, and an owner-occupied one-unit single-family home, with the amount down that its FAQ lists. Freddie Mac also says it stopped publishing fees and points in November 2022, because lenders don't always report them.
That last part matters. Two loans with the same rate can carry different points and fees. The weekly average can't show you that. Only a full quote can.
If your loan doesn't look like the survey's borrower (less money down, an FHA or VA loan, a jumbo amount, a condo, a refinance), the average describes someone else's loan. It still shows direction. It isn't a price.
What the 10-year Treasury did
FRED, the St. Louis Fed's public data site, shows the 10-year Treasury yield drifting lower through most of October. The biggest single move came on October 22, when the yield dropped sharply from the day before. It firmed up a little on October 23, held flat on October 26, and edged lower again on October 27, the latest day posted when I checked this morning.
Here's the timing problem. Freddie Mac's survey window for the October 22 release closed on Wednesday, October 21. So the drop in the Treasury yield on October 22 happened after that window shut, and the averages in the October 22 survey don't reflect it. Today's survey is the first one that can.
I'm not going to guess what today's number will be. Freddie Mac will publish it at noon Eastern, and Rate Watch will pick it up.
A Treasury yield is not a mortgage rate either. The two often move in the same direction over time, but you can't take a yield and turn it into your rate.
What's next on the calendar
The Fed's next meeting is December 8 and 9. The Fed's calendar marks it as a meeting that comes with a new Summary of Economic Projections from committee members.
Between now and then, Freddie Mac will put out a new survey every Thursday at noon Eastern, unless a holiday falls on Thursday. In that case, Freddie Mac says it publishes on the Wednesday of that week.
What this means if you're shopping
A hold doesn't change anything on a quote you already have. If you have one, the things that set it are still the same: your credit, how much you're putting down, the property, the loan program, and how long you lock.
Look at the date on the quote. If it's a few weeks old, it was priced in a different market, and it's fair to ask whether it still holds.
If you're waiting for the Fed to bring mortgage rates down, this meeting didn't do that, and two members wanted to go the other way. Planning around your own numbers is safer than planning around the next meeting.
Check your Loan Estimate and your lock
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says a lender must deliver or mail the Loan Estimate within 3 business days of receiving your application. It's a standard three-page form, and every lender has to use the same one. That's what makes side-by-side comparisons work.
The CFPB also points out that a Loan Estimate generally isn't an approval. It shows the terms the lender expects to offer if you move forward.
On rate locks, the CFPB says mortgage rates "can change daily, sometimes hourly." A lock keeps your rate from changing between the offer and closing, as long as you close within the lock period and nothing changes on your application. Locks are typically available for 30, 45, or 60 days, and sometimes longer.
Some lenders lock your rate when they issue the Loan Estimate, and some don't. The CFPB says to check the top of page 1 of your Loan Estimate to see whether your rate is locked and for how long.
A quote isn't locked until the lender confirms the lock in writing, and floating quotes can change.
A locked rate can still change if your application changes. The CFPB lists a few common reasons: you switch loan types or change how much you're putting down, the appraisal comes in higher or lower than expected, your credit score changes, or your lender can't document overtime, bonus, or other income.
The CFPB suggests asking your lender questions like these:
- What rate lock time frame does this Loan Estimate provide?
- Is a shorter or longer lock available, and at what cost?
- What if my closing is delayed and the lock expires?
- If I lock and rates go down, what happens?
Those questions matter more to your loan than anything the Fed said this week.
Run your own numbers
Open the calculator and put in the price you're looking at, how much you plan to put down, the term you want, and the rate on your own quote if you have one. Without a quote, treat the result as a sketch.
To follow the weekly averages, check Rate Watch.
Jeff Shin, Mortgage Loan Originator, NMLS #1041652. Chicago. Equal Housing Lender. Not a commitment to lend.